Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

José Caballero

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample1363.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.3% Market 59.2% Gap +9.3pp
BetMGM -145 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
26
Exit velocity81.1
3
Hard-hit%27.0%
10
xBA0.317
48
xSLG0.467
36
xwOBA0.280
25
BB%5.8%
20 -31 vs proj
Bat speed64.7
7
K%24.4%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · SS
4
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
72
Range Runs1.8 · SS
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · SS
48
SB Success Rate71.4% · SS
27
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
66
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
45
Correct Decisions63.2%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.251 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)