Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

José Tena

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupWSH vs LADBlake Snell
Sample586.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 42.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.3% Market 50.0% Gap +7.3pp
BetMGM -100 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
52
Exit velocity90.6
84
Hard-hit%45.7%
82
xBA0.342
76
xSLG0.547
65
xwOBA0.299
44 -19 vs proj
BB%9.1%
57 +23 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%29.4%
19 -42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
19
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
Small sample
Range Runs-2.2 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · DH
46
Bolts2.0 · DH
27
SB Success Rate66.7% · DH
20
Sprint Speed27.8 · DH
59
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.249
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.255 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)