Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-06 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-06

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs CWSLuis Castillo
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 13.9
V 13.8
Model 18.6% Market 15.5% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.9% Market 75.0% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.7% Market -- Gap +16.4pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
94 +15 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
72
Hard-hit%42.2%
65 -16 vs proj
xBA0.338
70
xSLG0.635
85
xwOBA0.351
88
BB%9.7%
64
Bat speed72.4
83
K%20.7%
60 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · RF
86
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg5.0 · RF
96
Range Runs3.5 · RF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · RF
20
Bolts3.0 · RF
41
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
22
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
69

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherLuis Castillo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)