Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample1358.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 13.0
Model 17.8% Market 15.5% Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.5% Market 75.0% Gap +14.0pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.2% Market -- Gap +11.1pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
92
Exit velocity89.6
73
Hard-hit%43.8%
75
xBA0.335
70
xSLG0.624
84
xwOBA0.353
92 +15 vs proj
BB%10.5%
73
Bat speed72.3
82
K%20.2%
66 +31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.1 · RF
92
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
94
Range Runs2.6 · RF
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
21
Bolts4.0 · RF
42
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
20
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
63
Correct Decisions66.3%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)