Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample1376.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.7
Model 17.3% Market 15.5% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.6% Market 75.0% Gap +14.4pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.1% Market -- Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
91
Exit velocity89.7
74
Hard-hit%43.8%
76
xBA0.331
65
xSLG0.617
83
xwOBA0.348
88
BB%10.2%
70
Bat speed72.3
82
K%20.4%
63 +28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.1 · RF
91
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
88
Range Runs2.0 · RF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
22
Bolts4.0 · RF
43
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
66
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.9%
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
54
Correct Decisions65.9%
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.338 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)