Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Blaze Alexander

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETFramber Valdez
Sample495.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 52.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.2% Market 68.4% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.5%
18 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
52
Hard-hit%45.5%
73 +29 vs proj
xBA0.417
98
xSLG0.547
61
xwOBA0.314
53 +21 vs proj
BB%5.7%
17 -21 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
64
K%28.7%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 3B
6
Arm Strength94.7 · 3B
95
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
26
Range Runs-2.8 · 3B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · 3B
90
SB Success Rate85.7% · 3B
66
Sprint Speed28.2 · 3B
78
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 0.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions50.0%
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.243 to 0.351
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherFramber Valdez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)