Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-06-14 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-14

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample2773.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 20.3% Market 16.9% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.6% Market 78.4% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -145 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.1% Market -- Gap +6.9pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
90
Exit velocity93.3
96
Hard-hit%53.8%
96
xBA0.381
93
xSLG0.649
85
xwOBA0.385
95
BB%9.9%
66 +33 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%18.6%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
93
Outs Above Avg16.0 · SS
100
Range Runs12.4 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.1 · SS
97
Bolts58.0 · SS
100
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
76
Sprint Speed30.3 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5%
37
Correct Decisions63.2%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.013
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)