Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDGermán Márquez
Sample2859.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 14.9
V 15.1
Model 20.4% Market 16.9% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.2% Market 84.6% Gap +13.0pp
FanDuel -175 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 38.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.0% Market -- Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
89
Exit velocity93.1
96
Hard-hit%53.5%
96
xBA0.384
94
xSLG0.644
85
xwOBA0.386
98
BB%9.6%
63 +29 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%17.9%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
80
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
92
Outs Above Avg18.0 · SS
100
Range Runs13.2 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.4 · SS
98
Bolts70.0 · SS
99
SB Success Rate89.3% · SS
76
Sprint Speed30.3 · SS
100
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.0%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
38
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.012
Opposing pitcherGermán Márquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)