Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs TORJameson Taillon
Sample2968.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 20.7
Model 22.3% Market 16.9% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.7% Market 82.6% Gap +17.2pp
BetMGM -475 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
88
Exit velocity92.2
94
Hard-hit%51.8%
96
xBA0.377
95
xSLG0.633
86
xwOBA0.382
98
BB%10.4%
72 +38 vs proj
Bat speed72.1
81
K%17.5%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
75
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
94
Outs Above Avg24.0 · SS
100
Range Runs18.3 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs7.2 · SS
100
Bolts79.0 · SS
98
SB Success Rate90.6% · SS
82
Sprint Speed30.1 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5%
37
Correct Decisions62.9%
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.012
Opposing pitcherJameson Taillon
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)