Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Miguel Vargas

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample1193.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.8
F 26.0
V 19.5
Model 21.2% Market 12.5% Gap +8.3pp
FanDuel 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 26.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.9% Market 50.0% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 56.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.6% Market -- Gap +11.4pp
FanDuel -210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
90 +43 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
64
Hard-hit%44.2%
68 +38 vs proj
xBA0.324
49
xSLG0.676
88
xwOBA0.399
97 +54 vs proj
BB%16.0%
96 +31 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%16.5%
82 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
55
Arm Strength85.3 · 3B
49
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs-2.2 · 3B
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · 3B
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
92
Sprint Speed28.2 · 3B
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions75.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)