Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-08-02 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-02

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 12.7
V 10.8
Model 21.4% Market 12.6% Gap +8.4pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.3% Market 70.2% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.4% Market -- Gap +6.1pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
49 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
27
Hard-hit%33.5%
26 -30 vs proj
xBA0.297
26
xSLG0.490
44
xwOBA0.269
16 -26 vs proj
BB%5.9%
21
Bat speed69.7
52
K%25.8%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
57
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
78
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
44
Range Runs0.2 · SS
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · SS
56
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
64
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)