Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample2041.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.9
F 11.7
V 10.1
Model 18.4% Market 12.6% Gap +5.5pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.7% Market 69.7% Gap +12.5pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
52
Exit velocity86.1
30
Hard-hit%34.2%
30 -28 vs proj
xBA0.309
39
xSLG0.504
52
xwOBA0.277
23 -21 vs proj
BB%6.2%
25
Bat speed69.7
50
K%25.5%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
81
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-0.5 · SS
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · SS
80
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.4%
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.6%
93
Correct Decisions63.2%
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.273
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)