Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs MINBailey Ober
Sample1337.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
Model 15.8% Market 12.3% Gap +3.0pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.1% Market 77.4% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
45
Exit velocity88.0
41
Hard-hit%42.2%
58 +16 vs proj
xBA0.326
52
xSLG0.489
42
xwOBA0.308
45
BB%7.4%
33 +20 vs proj
Bat speed67.7
25
K%22.1%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
28
Arm Strength97.3 · CF
85
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
99
Range Runs5.8 · CF
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · CF
39
Bolts1.0 · CF
16
SB Success Rate42.9% · CF
5
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 10.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions81.8%
Small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.234
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.121
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)