Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Spencer Torkelson

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample2325.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 13.6
Model 17.6% Market 16.2% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.3% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.1% Market -- Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
84
Exit velocity89.2
65
Hard-hit%41.3%
63 -23 vs proj
xBA0.334
69
xSLG0.616
83
xwOBA0.308
54 -25 vs proj
BB%10.5%
73
Bat speed71.4
75
K%30.6%
14 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-13.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-9.1 · 1B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 1B
23
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
25
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.3%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
62
Correct Decisions71.2%
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.403
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.373
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)