Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Spencer Torkelson

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs CLELogan Allen
Sample2333.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 16.9
Model 19.7% Market 16.7% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.3% Market 73.0% Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.7% Market -- Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
84
Exit velocity89.2
65
Hard-hit%41.4%
65 -22 vs proj
xBA0.332
66
xSLG0.619
84
xwOBA0.311
57 -22 vs proj
BB%10.5%
73
Bat speed71.4
75
K%30.1%
16 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-12.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-8.9 · 1B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 1B
24
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
24
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.6%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
62
Correct Decisions71.4%
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.403
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.373
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherLogan Allen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)