Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Matt McLain

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample1058.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 30.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.4% Market 51.7% Gap -2.9pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
58
Exit velocity88.0
41
Hard-hit%39.2%
44
xBA0.320
43
xSLG0.527
53
xwOBA0.319
56
BB%10.9%
71 +26 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
57
K%22.6%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
81
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
81
Range Runs2.1 · 2B
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · 2B
7
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
36
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
87
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.240 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)