Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-05-29 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-29

Matt McLain

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample1066.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.4% Market 26.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 22500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
56
Exit velocity87.4
36
Hard-hit%38.3%
41 -18 vs proj
xBA0.313
39
xSLG0.512
50
xwOBA0.311
52
BB%10.5%
69 +24 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
56
K%22.7%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
79
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs2.3 · 2B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · 2B
9
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
36
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
50
Correct Decisions69.0%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)