Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Matt McLain

CIN · Hitter
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs SDMichael King
Sample1244.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 47.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.1% Market 66.1% Gap +11.5pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 12.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 12.2% Market -- Gap +7.1pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity86.5
34
Hard-hit%37.9%
47 -22 vs proj
xBA0.326
58
xSLG0.558
68
xwOBA0.310
56
BB%10.4%
72 +22 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
40
K%26.9%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
17
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
68
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 2B
92
Range Runs2.6 · 2B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 2B
38
SB Success Rate87.5% · 2B
74
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
83
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
43
Correct Decisions67.5%
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.327
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)