Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Steven Kwan

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample2610.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.4
F 9.3
V 12.3
Model 10.6% Market 8.7% Gap +1.6pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 43.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.9% Market 73.0% Gap +10.0pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.1% Market -- Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.3%
2
Exit velocity81.4
4
Hard-hit%10.1%
0
xBA0.289
21
xSLG0.357
5
xwOBA0.309
52
BB%14.1%
94 +48 vs proj
Bat speed60.5
0
K%10.6%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
68
Arm Strength92.4 · CF
46
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs5.4 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · CF
61
Sprint Speed26.9 · CF
37
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.4%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3%
16
Correct Decisions67.6%
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)