Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Steven Kwan

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs DETKeider Montero
Sample2765.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.7
F 10.8
V 9.5
Model 11.9% Market 8.7% Gap +2.9pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 47.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.8% Market 75.0% Gap +14.3pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.2% Market -- Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.4%
2
Exit velocity82.2
6
Hard-hit%9.7%
0
xBA0.306
36
xSLG0.377
8
xwOBA0.322
70
BB%13.8%
95 +47 vs proj
Bat speed60.1
0
K%10.1%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
57
Arm Strength92.4 · LF
42
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs7.1 · LF
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · CF
53
Bolts1.0 · CF
11
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed27.3 · CF
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.9%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7%
16
Correct Decisions68.2%
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)