Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-05-17 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-17

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample2098.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 17.9
V 7.9
Model 22.0% Market 11.8% Gap +9.8pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
65
Exit velocity90.0
67
Hard-hit%42.6%
59 -17 vs proj
xBA0.314
37
xSLG0.508
48
xwOBA0.285
28 -39 vs proj
BB%7.8%
38
Bat speed72.6
87
K%25.9%
30 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
43
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
47
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
72
Range Runs1.6 · LF
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · LF
94
Bolts4.0 · LF
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
88
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
93

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionPositive · 0.000
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)