Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample2149.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 19.6% Market 11.8% Gap +7.3pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.0
F 83.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 82.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 72.0% Market 80.0% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
44
Barrel%7.7%
80 +18 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
90
Exit velocity90.6
79
Hard-hit%43.4%
65
K%27.3%
24 -24 vs proj
xBA0.348
72
xSLG0.593
73
xwOBA0.313
53 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
29
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
46
Outs Above Avg3.0 · LF
94
Range Runs3.2 · LF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · LF
82
Bolts4.0 · LF
49
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
93
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)