Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 7 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample2418.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 10.9
Model 20.4% Market 11.8% Gap +8.2pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.0% Market 83.7% Gap +16.8pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.9% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%41.8%
65 -18 vs proj
xBA0.342
75
xSLG0.558
67
xwOBA0.299
43 -39 vs proj
BB%6.8%
31
Bat speed72.9
89
K%27.5%
25 -26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
24
Arm Strength92.0 · LF
40
Outs Above Avg4.0 · LF
94
Range Runs4.9 · LF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.5 · LF
92
Bolts10.0 · LF
65
SB Success Rate87.5% · LF
74
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
29
Correct Decisions62.7%
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionPositive · 0.002
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)