Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample2434.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 9.9
Model 19.8% Market 11.8% Gap +7.5pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.1% Market 83.7% Gap +17.8pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 29.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.4% Market -- Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity89.2
65
Hard-hit%41.5%
65 -19 vs proj
xBA0.339
73
xSLG0.559
69
xwOBA0.298
43 -39 vs proj
BB%6.8%
30
Bat speed73.0
90
K%27.4%
26 -26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · LF
21
Arm Strength92.0 · LF
39
Outs Above Avg6.0 · LF
97
Range Runs5.4 · LF
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · LF
92
Bolts11.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate87.5% · LF
74
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.3%
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9%
34
Correct Decisions63.1%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)