Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-05 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-05

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIN vs KCNoah Cameron
Sample1818.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 12.5
V 10.4
Model 15.5% Market 12.5% Gap +2.6pp
DraftKings 675 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.6% Market 71.4% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.7% Market -- Gap +13.5pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
88 +27 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
59
Hard-hit%39.4%
52
xBA0.320
52
xSLG0.569
71
xwOBA0.368
95 +27 vs proj
BB%12.1%
85 +32 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
69
K%15.2%
87 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
64
Catcher Throwing-2.3 · C
8
Framing Runs0.7 · C
62
Pop Time2.0 · C
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.329 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.424
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.061
Opposing pitcherNoah Cameron
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)