Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs DETJackson Jobe
Sample1886.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 50.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.3% Market 67.7% Gap +12.1pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.1% Market -- Gap +9.6pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity88.1
52
Hard-hit%38.5%
50
xBA0.311
41
xSLG0.536
61
xwOBA0.351
91 +22 vs proj
BB%12.9%
90 +36 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
73
K%16.1%
85 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
71
Catcher Throwing-2.6 · C
5
Framing Runs0.1 · C
54
Pop Time2.0 · C
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
25
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0%
32
Correct Decisions67.2%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.424
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.047
Opposing pitcherJackson Jobe
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)