Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Brendan Donovan

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.8
F 13.2
V 9.6
Model 12.4% Market 9.8% Gap +2.3pp
DraftKings 890 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.3
F 69.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 77.8% Market 78.7% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -370 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
33
Exit velocity87.6
44
Hard-hit%36.0%
35 -18 vs proj
xBA0.322
51
xSLG0.470
35
xwOBA0.344
82
BB%11.0%
76 +41 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
17
K%14.2%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 3B
7
Range Runs-3.7 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.168
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)