Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-01

Bryson Stott

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez
Sample2477.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 52.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.9% Market 63.0% Gap +10.4pp
BetMGM -170 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
40
Exit velocity88.9
62
Hard-hit%38.5%
50
xBA0.332
65
xSLG0.499
51
xwOBA0.329
76
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed67.9
28
K%16.9%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
72
Arm Strength86.5 · 2B
45
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 2B
92
Range Runs7.4 · 2B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs6.8 · 2B
99
Bolts3.0 · 2B
37
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
94
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.4%
11
Correct Decisions63.7%
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherEduardo Rodriguez
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)