Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-06-13 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Colton Cowser

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs SDRandy Vásquez
Sample1030.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.8% Market 60.7% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.0% Market -- Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
81
Exit velocity85.0
15
Hard-hit%32.4%
22 -52 vs proj
xBA0.318
44
xSLG0.672
88
xwOBA0.325
63
BB%11.7%
80 +20 vs proj
Bat speed71.3
74
K%29.4%
15
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
81
Arm Strength97.2 · RF
85
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs2.7 · RF
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
72
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.398
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherRandy Vásquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)