Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Colton Cowser

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample1185.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.9% Market 56.5% Gap +8.4pp
BetMGM -130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
69
Exit velocity87.1
41
Hard-hit%40.8%
61 -19 vs proj
xBA0.337
72
xSLG0.641
87
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%11.6%
85 +24 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%30.5%
14
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
24
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
79
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs7.4 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
56
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · CF
66
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.8%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
36
Correct Decisions64.9%
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.379
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)