Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-06-02 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Connor Norby

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs WSHMiles Mikolas
Sample662.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 44.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.1% Market 60.7% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 15000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
64
Exit velocity87.2
35
Hard-hit%36.3%
34
xBA0.285
19
xSLG0.513
50
xwOBA0.291
32
BB%9.9%
64 +43 vs proj
Bat speed68.6
36
K%28.3%
20
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 1B
24
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs2.0 · 1B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 1B
56
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
35
Sprint Speed28.1 · 1B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions71.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherMiles Mikolas
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)