Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Connor Norby

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 26
OUT · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs SDGermán Márquez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.3% Market 64.3% Gap +10.8pp
BetMGM -180 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
54
Exit velocity87.1
36
Hard-hit%37.0%
39
xBA0.281
14
xSLG0.499
46
xwOBA0.282
25
BB%10.2%
70
Bat speed68.6
34
K%29.9%
15
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 1B
20
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs3.4 · 1B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 1B
49
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
34
Sprint Speed28.1 · 1B
70
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherGermán Márquez
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)