Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Connor Norby

MIA · Hitter
OUT · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.5% Market 59.2% Gap +9.4pp
BetMGM -145 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
54
Exit velocity87.1
37
Hard-hit%37.0%
39
xBA0.281
15
xSLG0.499
46
xwOBA0.282
25
BB%10.2%
70
Bat speed68.6
34
K%29.9%
15
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 1B
20
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs3.4 · 1B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
32
Sprint Speed28.1 · 1B
70
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)