Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Connor Norby

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample759.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.9% Market 66.7% Gap +11.3pp
BetMGM -200 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity87.1
42
Hard-hit%36.8%
43
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.516
56
xwOBA0.294
37 -32 vs proj
BB%10.5%
73 +48 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
38
K%29.6%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
44
Arm Strength85.0 · 1B
32
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
79
Range Runs0.0 · 1B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 1B
60
SB Success Rate77.8% · 1B
41
Sprint Speed28.2 · 1B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
80
Correct Decisions71.3%
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)