Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample496.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.3% Market 55.6% Gap +9.2pp
BetMGM -125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
89 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity92.4
93
Hard-hit%51.4%
94 +27 vs proj
xBA0.364
86
xSLG0.714
95
xwOBA0.364
92 +24 vs proj
BB%10.0%
68 +18 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
84
K%25.1%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · LF
16
Arm Strength97.2 · LF
81
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
89
Range Runs1.0 · LF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
56
Sprint Speed28.5 · LF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.266 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)