Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Noelvi Marte

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs CLESlade Cecconi
Sample827.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.3% Market 67.2% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.6% Market -- Gap +11.4pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
36 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity88.0
48
Hard-hit%31.9%
20 -29 vs proj
xBA0.275
12
xSLG0.450
28
xwOBA0.258
11 -40 vs proj
BB%5.3%
17
Bat speed70.3
60
K%24.7%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · RF
21
Arm Strength97.0 · RF
78
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-3.8 · RF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
92
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherSlade Cecconi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)