Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample1843.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 21.1% Market 14.9% Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 545 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 66.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 76.5% Gap -3.6pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
91 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity94.4
98
Hard-hit%54.5%
96
xBA0.409
96
xSLG0.754
94
xwOBA0.373
88 +16 vs proj
BB%9.1%
52
Bat speed73.2
90
K%28.0%
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
43
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg6.0 · SS
98
Range Runs4.0 · SS
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · SS
38
Bolts1.0 · SS
16
SB Success Rate62.5% · SS
16
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
75
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.220
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.057
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)