Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample1920.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.1
F 16.6
V 14.3
Model 21.4% Market 15.0% Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.3% Market 80.0% Gap +11.8pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.6% Market -- Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
91
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%54.8%
98
xBA0.402
97
xSLG0.715
95
xwOBA0.358
88
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed73.5
92
K%28.9%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
45
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
91
Range Runs4.0 · SS
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · SS
62
Bolts3.0 · SS
43
SB Success Rate66.7% · SS
22
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
74
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9%
13
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)