Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample1947.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 13.2
Model 21.1% Market 15.0% Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.6% Market 79.6% Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel -160 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.6% Market -- Gap +12.9pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
95 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity94.8
99
Hard-hit%55.0%
98
xBA0.400
96
xSLG0.722
95
xwOBA0.364
90
BB%9.5%
61
Bat speed73.7
93
K%28.0%
23
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
44
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs5.9 · SS
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · SS
67
Bolts4.0 · SS
50
SB Success Rate69.2% · SS
24
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9%
13
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.053
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)