Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs SDMichael King
Sample2103.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 12.6
V 13.0
Model 21.1% Market 15.0% Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.0% Market 80.0% Gap +15.5pp
BetMGM -400 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
92
Exit velocity94.0
98
Hard-hit%52.4%
97
xBA0.398
98
xSLG0.684
93
xwOBA0.360
94
BB%10.5%
73
Bat speed74.4
96
K%27.2%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
40
Arm Strength99.8 · SS
100
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
94
Range Runs5.6 · SS
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · SS
69
Bolts13.0 · SS
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · SS
33
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
81
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.8%
15
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.394
2
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)