Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-08-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-29

Cj Abrams

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample2457.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.8
Model 20.5% Market 13.9% Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 590 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.7% Market 77.8% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -350 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.3% Market -- Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity89.5
69
Hard-hit%41.4%
63
xBA0.343
76
xSLG0.597
78
xwOBA0.336
81
BB%8.6%
52 +24 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
K%23.0%
47 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength90.1 · SS
73
Outs Above Avg-17.0 · SS
1
Range Runs-12.6 · SS
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.0 · SS
90
Bolts11.0 · SS
67
SB Success Rate86.4% · SS
69
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
81
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.394 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.399
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.057
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)