Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Cj Abrams

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs LADBlake Snell
Sample2474.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.3
F 12.0
V 10.0
Model 14.8% Market 13.3% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.2% Market 71.0% Gap +12.8pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
69
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%41.2%
63
xBA0.336
71
xSLG0.584
76
xwOBA0.328
76
BB%8.6%
53 +25 vs proj
Bat speed70.9
70
K%23.7%
45 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength90.1 · SS
74
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
46
Range Runs-12.3 · SS
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · SS
91
Bolts12.0 · SS
68
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
74
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
70
Correct Decisions65.2%
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.386 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.395
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)