Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-11

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs PHICristopher Sánchez
Sample2203.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 15.5
V 14.1
Model 15.4% Market 17.4% Gap -2.0pp
BetMGM 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.8% Market 72.2% Gap +9.5pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.1% Market -- Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.3%
88
Exit velocity91.5
89
Hard-hit%50.2%
92
xBA0.380
92
xSLG0.694
93
xwOBA0.362
89
BB%11.4%
81 +31 vs proj
Bat speed74.1
95
K%26.8%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.6 · LF
4
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
7
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.8 · LF
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · LF
32
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
29
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6%
80
Correct Decisions69.9%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherCristopher Sánchez
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)