Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample2206.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.4
F 16.6
V 14.5
Model 18.2% Market 18.1% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.1% Market 77.0% Gap +11.0pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.1% Market -- Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
88
Exit velocity91.5
90
Hard-hit%50.4%
91
xBA0.381
92
xSLG0.700
94
xwOBA0.366
92
BB%12.0%
85
Bat speed74.1
95
K%26.5%
28
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.6 · LF
4
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
7
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs1.1 · LF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · LF
31
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
30
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6%
80
Correct Decisions69.9%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.392
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)