Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-22

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IL10 · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 11.5
Model 17.1% Market 18.1% Gap -1.6pp
DraftKings 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.4% Market 78.5% Gap +14.4pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
91
Exit velocity90.5
83
Hard-hit%48.7%
90
xBA0.376
95
xSLG0.698
95
xwOBA0.363
94
BB%11.8%
85 +32 vs proj
Bat speed74.1
94
K%27.0%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.3 · LF
3
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
5
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Range Runs-1.5 · LF
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
46
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
31
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8%
86
Correct Decisions70.1%
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.345 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.417
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.392
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)