Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter
IL10 · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 13.9
Model 19.7% Market 17.6% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 445 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.8% Market 78.7% Gap +15.0pp
BetMGM -370 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
93
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%48.7%
90
xBA0.376
95
xSLG0.698
94
xwOBA0.363
95
BB%11.8%
86
Bat speed74.1
94
K%27.0%
28
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.3 · LF
4
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
5
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.5 · LF
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
44
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
31
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8%
87
Correct Decisions70.1%
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)