Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs CLELogan Allen
Sample2298.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 16.0
Model 18.6% Market 16.4% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.1% Market 76.5% Gap +14.9pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 23.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.5% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
90
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%48.3%
89
xBA0.374
94
xSLG0.692
94
xwOBA0.358
94
BB%11.6%
85 +32 vs proj
Bat speed74.1
95
K%27.4%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.3 · LF
4
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
5
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
12
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · LF
44
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.7%
87
Correct Decisions69.8%
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.416
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.392
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherLogan Allen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)