Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-05-31 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-31

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs SEABryce Miller
Sample2020.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 18.5% Market 17.5% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.8% Market 77.9% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
86
Exit velocity91.5
88
Hard-hit%50.0%
90 +15 vs proj
xBA0.370
86
xSLG0.671
88
xwOBA0.375
90
BB%13.2%
88 +16 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
K%23.5%
39 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.3 · RF
2
Arm Strength86.5 · RF
9
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
96
Range Runs3.6 · RF
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · RF
99
Bolts19.0 · RF
88
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed29.6 · RF
96
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0%
71
Correct Decisions67.0%
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.401
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.398
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.052
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)