Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample2174.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.2
F 15.5
V 11.5
Model 19.3% Market 17.5% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 73.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.0% Market 81.7% Gap +12.2pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 31.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.1% Market -- Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
83
Exit velocity91.6
90
Hard-hit%48.3%
86
xBA0.342
71
xSLG0.607
78
xwOBA0.346
82
BB%11.8%
84
Bat speed74.3
96
K%23.3%
44 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.2 · RF
1
Arm Strength86.9 · RF
9
Outs Above Avg8.0 · RF
99
Range Runs7.6 · RF
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · RF
98
Bolts40.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate81.8% · RF
51
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
57
Correct Decisions66.3%
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.401
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)