Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-26

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample2304.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.2
Model 17.5% Market 16.0% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 43.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.6% Market 42.5% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.4% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
87
Exit velocity91.9
92
Hard-hit%50.1%
94
xBA0.339
72
xSLG0.601
80
xwOBA0.349
89
BB%11.9%
85
Bat speed74.0
94
K%22.0%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-4.6 · RF
1
Arm Strength87.2 · RF
8
Outs Above Avg10.0 · RF
99
Range Runs8.6 · RF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs7.8 · RF
100
Bolts51.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate88.9% · RF
76
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6%
65
Correct Decisions67.4%
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.395
2
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.332 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)